Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 15.125856 17.232056 19.661885 22.704849 26.460530 31.007815 3.703126e+01
2025-03-09 12.511771 15.124239 18.415675 22.975996 29.317355 38.135079 5.194976e+01
2025-03-16 10.679107 13.369920 16.945889 22.228722 30.185981 42.401455 6.420427e+01
2025-03-23 9.602397 12.364478 16.198057 22.175444 31.831450 48.069597 8.104089e+01
2025-03-30 8.535564 11.205712 15.025727 21.216626 31.748864 50.752422 9.365902e+01
2025-04-06 7.635295 10.172152 13.886653 20.090794 31.091640 52.131227 1.042454e+02
2025-04-13 6.950371 9.379867 13.010926 19.242264 30.719179 53.912204 1.168989e+02
2025-04-20 7.020287 9.708919 13.888523 21.452357 36.494518 70.643207 1.851352e+02
2025-04-27 6.779382 9.531016 13.924386 22.174379 39.513835 82.518970 2.547416e+02
2025-05-04 6.291774 8.921158 13.178334 21.330831 38.987099 85.012031 2.903148e+02
2025-05-11 6.099346 8.768084 13.188115 21.930489 41.845018 98.464453 4.082681e+02
2025-05-18 5.790800 8.400291 12.787701 21.656340 42.572895 105.851566 5.125720e+02
2025-05-25 5.503523 8.062820 12.437419 21.496319 43.718995 116.028171 6.882684e+02
2025-06-01 5.294784 7.843390 12.281565 21.729598 45.998667 132.305465 1.044216e+03
2025-06-08 4.987161 7.432879 11.735993 21.039354 45.572900 137.534501 1.317451e+03
2025-06-15 4.787217 7.195340 11.493432 20.990043 46.990288 152.326711 2.028293e+03
2025-06-22 4.505137 6.797132 10.914519 20.102395 45.697341 153.303033 2.442775e+03
2025-06-29 4.226377 6.391083 10.294945 19.058512 43.729909 149.849311 2.691251e+03
2025-07-06 3.996577 6.061382 9.803858 18.270558 42.436657 149.578098 3.186410e+03
2025-07-13 4.090743 6.314182 10.467953 20.320744 50.976445 217.212481 2.678468e+04
2025-07-20 4.031266 6.283236 10.562031 20.989059 55.127819 265.899493 9.308083e+05
2025-07-27 3.838810 5.996788 10.113163 20.208188 53.664665 267.009660 3.716417e+07
2025-08-03 3.780381 5.956683 10.171160 20.763389 57.587205 325.684587 NaN